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In his latest post, Matthew Goodwin reveals the most Eurosceptic seats in the UK and notes the surge in anti-EU feeling in England s eastern counties, Wales and the south-west. Conversely, Leave activists are unlikely to waste their time campaigning in London, where Remain prevails. What are the most Eurosceptic seats in Britain?
Since we last met, a new Eurosceptic movement has launched. Grassroots Out 1 (or Go!) is the latest effort to mobilise support for Brexit and claims that it will root its strategy around a constituency by constituency plan . This got me thinking.
What are the most Eurosceptic seats in Britain? There are different ways of answering this question. One way is to look in broad terms at the type of voters who are in each seat -ie to rank seats according to their share of the social groups that we know are most likely to lean toward Leave.
When Caitlin Milazzo and I did this for our recent book 2 we were left with the map below, which sorts seats according to how favourable they were likely to be to the harder brand of Euroscepticism offered by the UK Independence Party. As you can see, if Eurosceptics are planning to run a constituency-by-constituency campaign then the good news for them is that there is a very clear geographical pattern. They would do well, for example, to target England s eastern and southern coasts, parts of Yorkshire, the East Midlands, Cumbria and Wales.
You can download the complete rankings 3 for seats in England and Wales. The top ten seats in England are below. (1) Clacton UKIP (2) Boston and Skegness CON (3) Kingston-upon-Hull East LAB (4) Easington LAB (5) Barnsley East LAB (6) Knowsley LAB (7) Doncaster North LAB (8) Liverpool Walton LAB (9) Great Yarmouth CON (10) Ashfield LAB At the general election last May all but two of these seats handed Ukip higher than average shares of the vote, from 44% in Douglas Carswell s seat of Clacton to 21% in Gloria De Piero s seat of Ashfield. These seats are filled with voters who share the core features 4 of Eurosceptics blue-collar, grey hair, financially struggling, and lacking qualifications.
This is not a criticism, just a fact. Few Leave voters look like Daniel Hannan. But these areas also look very different to those at the other end of the spectrum, where the Leave campaigns will likely encounter hostile voters.
The ten least receptive seats are all in London like Chelsea and Fulham, and Hampstead and Kilburn. Beyond the capital the least receptive seats in England tend to be younger, urban and more affluent or ethnically secure Bristol West, Manchester Withington, Cambridge, Birmingham Ladywood, Sheffield Central, Reading East, Leeds North East, St Albans, Oxford East and Sheffield Hallam, to name only a few. But this is also only way to cut the numbers.
If you download the spreadsheet you can compare our rankings of the most Eurosceptic seats with those compiled by another team of academics. Rather than look only at the types of voters in seats, Chris Hanretty and his colleagues combined information on how voters plan to vote at the referendum with information on demographics to produce an estimate of the likely vote for Brexit in each seat. Many of the most Eurosceptic seats also appear toward the top of our own list filled with the same types of voters.
Here s their map . All but one of the ten most Eurosceptic seats also appear in the top third of our own list, revealing how the data are pointing toward very similar territory. 5 6 7 (1) Clacton UKIP (2) Castle Point CON (3) Great Yarmouth CON (4) Christchurch CON (5) Blackpool North and Cleveleys CON (6) Boston and Skegness CON (7) South Holland and The Deepings CON (8) North East Cambridgeshire CON (9) Waveney CON (10) Aldridge-Brownhills CON There are similar findings across both lists. First, between one-third and nearly half of the top hundred seats are scattered along Eastern England.
In earlier years the Eurosceptic movement was often most active in the south west but today it s real heartland is England s east coast. Second, the data also point to similar clusters of Eurosceptic potential in the Midlands, Yorkshire, and the North West, in struggling left behind areas like Blackpool, Bolton, Boston and Skegness, Don Valley, Dudley, Louth and Horncastle, Mansfield, Rotherham, Scunthorpe Stoke, Walsall and Wigan. Third, the Greater London area is not a complete desert for Eurosceptics.
Outer-east areas feature towards the top of both lists, like Dagenham and Rainham, Hornchurch and Upminster, and Romford. Fourth, our number crunching also flags a cluster of fifteen seats in Wales that look potentially receptive to the Brexit camp such as Rhondda, Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil, which goes some way to explaining why Ukip looks set 8 to enter the Welsh Assembly this year. So, what does all of this mean?
In what the polls suggest will be a close referendum race how the campaigns use data and target their resources could make all the difference. Inexperienced movements have a habit of targeting the wrong areas. There would be little point in Remain activists spending evenings and weekends in Clacton, or Leave activists traipsing around the leafy streets of Highgate and Hampstead.
Instead, both would do well to redirect their energy and focus onto territory where they can mobilise a much larger number of their supporters. After all, turnout could make all the difference. And, lastly, before anybody asks, we will come back to these data in a little while to explore the Remain heartland too.
Forthcoming events On February 24 Professor John Curtice and Matthew Goodwin will be discussing public attitudes toward the referendum at Portcullis House, House of Commons. Register here 9 On February 26 Chatham House will also be hosting a breakfast briefing for journalists on the referendum, featuring Anthony Wells and Professor Sara Hobolt. Journalists can register here 10 .
Other evidence-based blogs An excellent blog on that new YouGov poll 11 , showing Leave ahead A new survey 12 of MPs attitudes toward EU referendum via UK in a Changing Europe Simon Hix asks 13 Do UK MEPs get key positions of power in Europe? In the Telegraph I explore 14 why the referendum campaigns should avoid going negative In this helpful report, Rob Ford and Anthony Heath examine 15 public opinion on migrant benefits. An earlier and shorter version of this blogpost appeared in The Times Red Bo 16 x.
It represents the views of the author and not those of BrexitVote, nor the LSE. Matthew Goodwin 17 is Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent and an ESRC Senior Fellow on the UK in a Changing Europe programme. In 2015, he won the Paddy Power Political Book of the Year for Revolt on the Right, co-authored with Robert Ford.
References ^ Grassroots Out (www.bbc.co.uk) ^ our recent book (www.amazon.co.uk) ^ download the complete rankings (gallery.mailchimp.com) ^ features (www.chathamhouse.org) ^ Seat Rankings (gallery.mailchimp.com) ^ combined information (constituencyopinion.org.uk) ^ Here s their map (constituencyopinion.org.uk) ^ Ukip looks set (www.bbc.co.uk) ^ here (www.natcen.ac.uk) ^ here (www.chathamhouse.org) ^ on that new YouGov poll (whatukthinks.org) ^ survey (ukandeu.ac.uk) ^ asks (www.theguardian.com) ^ explore (www.telegraph.co.uk) ^ examine (www.unboundphilanthropy.org) ^ The Times Red Bo (www.thetimes.co.uk) ^ Matthew Goodwin (www.kent.ac.uk)
Attorney James A. O Donovan of West Yarmouth, Massachusetts, formerly of Somerville Massachusetts, entered into rest on January 15, 2016 surrounded by his adoring family and with his wife Pauline, the love of his life, at his side. He left this world a brighter, more beautiful place, and all who had the good luck to cross paths with him are better for knowing him.
Born in Kilrush, County Clare, Ireland, James Alexander Falcan O Donovan was the son of Bridgetta Frances (McCarthy) O Donovan and Timothy O Donovan. Until the age of 8, he lived amid the rolling green hills and sandy beaches of Burgatia in Rosscarbery, County Cork. In 1931 he emigrated with his family to Uphams Corner, Dorchester, Massachusetts and in 1941 he graduated from Boston English High School.
Jim was a true patriot. He believed firmly in the American Dream and lived his life accordingly. With so many others of his greatest generation including his sister Maureen, brother John, and brother Pat Jim served his country with the United States Army in World War II.
When his mother opened the door to two FBI Agents who were vetting him for high-level security clearance, her response was Oh my God what did he do now?! Apparently they were unconcerned with any possible transgressions, because Jim went on to become a cryptography specialist, encoding and decoding messages and correspondence for Army Intelligence while serving in the Southwest Pacific Theater from 1943 to 1946. With his customary modesty, he rarely spoke of the War or his role in it, other than to relate the story of the time he was at a movie theater while on leave in Brisbane, Australia when a familiar rollicking laugh rose from the front row which just happened to belong to his brother Pat.
Home from the war, Jim enrolled at Boston University under the GI bill. He had a lifelong passion for baseball playing varsity catcher for Boston University and semi-professional baseball with the Boston Park League s Linehan Club of South Boston, and earning an invitation to try out as a catcher with the Brooklyn Dodgers. He was an avid Red Sox and Patriots fan, through glorious victories and heartbreaking losses alike, and spent many happy Sundays alternating with lightning speed on the clicker between football, golf, the military history channel and his favorite Westerns.
While working as a postal carrier for the United States Postal Service, Jim received his Bachelor of Arts in 1949 and continued on to Suffolk University Law School where he received his Juris Doctor in 1953. He was admitted to the bar in 1955 and commenced a legal career that shone brightly for five decades. Jim was guided by an unwavering sense of fairness, and began his career with the Voluntary Defenders Committee in 1956, a precursor to the modern public defender s office.
From 1960 to 1966 he served the City of Somerville as its City Solicitor, and subsequently went into private practice at 6 Beacon Street in Boston with his dear friend Albert Hutton Jr. Until his death he practiced law with his son Sean. He was a renowned criminal defense attorney and litigator throughout his career.
To those he encountered in the courtroom, he was a fearsome but charming adversary; always gallant, always courteous, but fiercely dedicated to the principles of equity and justice. Jim was truly young at heart, always open for new experiences and new opportunities, such as the time he trekked his entire young family from Somerville to Mexico for the summer to improve his Spanish. Language immersion at its finest!
He was a voracious reader, gobbling up presidential biographies, military strategy, Irish history and medieval history alike. A well-worn dictionary was always by his chair. He also loved to be outside, especially when it involved a nine-iron and fairways.
Golfing with his sons and grandsons was one of his greatest pleasures and he passed many golden days with them on the course. Jim also took great joy in his weekly poker games with the West Yarmouth gang, especially when he broke the bank! He loved the company of his friends.
Jim had a marvelous sense of humor. He loved a bawdy joke or a silly song and he took great pleasure in teasing his beloved Pauline. Each anniversary he would loudly exclaim in mock horror and surprise that they had spent too many years together.
This past June he had the good fortune of announcing that he had now spent 65 years with the wrong woman! Anyone who ever saw them together knew that she was, in fact, the one and only woman for him. It is impossible to describe everything that Jim meant to his family, his friends, his clients, and colleagues.
He was the first to congratulate or offer a word of encouragement, and he was always ready with a kind word and wide smile. He was a loyal friend, confidante to his grandchildren, and mentor to young attorneys. He was adored by his five sons and their wives, and idolized by his ten grandchildren and two great-grand-children.
Jim s greatest joy and inspiration in his life was his family. His sons and grandchildren were his pride and joy, and the love he shared with them illuminated the world around them. In addition to his wife Pauline, Jim is survived by five sons: James D.
O Donovan of Somerville; Kevin O Donovan, his wife Alessandra and their children Alexander, Elizabeth and Katherine, of Somerville; Brian O Donovan, his wife Denise and their children Seamus, Devin, Aidan and Addison; Michael O Donovan, his wife Gina and their children Kaleigh and Daniel, of Medford; and Sean O Donovan and his wife Peri, of Somerville. Jim is also survived by his grand-daughter Cari-Anne McAuley and her husband David, of Marshfield, and two great-grand-children, Hunter and Madison McAuley of Marshfield. He is also survived by numerous loving nieces, nephews, and cousins, and many devoted friends.
The family would like to especially mention the incredible staff at Mayflower Nursing Center in West Yarmouth, who guided us along this painful journey with love and compassion. We will never be the same without him but we are blessed to have him part of us forever. Wake Information 4:00 8:00, Wednesday, January 20, 2016 Doherty Funeral Home 855 Broadway Somerville, MA 02144 Funeral Mass 10:00, Thursday, January 21, 2016 St.
Clement Church 64 Warner Street Medford, MA 02155 Graveside Service 1:00, Thursday, January 21, 2016 MA National Cemetery, Bourne, MA Off Connery Avenue Bourne, MA 02532 /